In 2025, Canadians, historically the largest group of international visitors to the United States, have drastically reduced their travel south of the border. This shift, often described as a boycott, is reshaping cross-border tourism and impacting the U.S. economy. Supported by compelling statistics and driven by economic, political, and social factors, the decline in Canadian travel to the U.S. marks a significant moment in the relationship between the two nations.
The Scale of the Decline
The scale of this decline is striking. In March 2025, Statistics Canada reported that 1.5 million Canadian residents returned from the U.S. by car, a 31.9% drop from 2.1 million the previous year. This follows a 23% year-over-year decrease in February 2025. U.S. Customs and Border Protection noted a 17% overall reduction in northern border crossings in March 2025, with nearly 900,000 fewer travelers compared to 2024. Specific border points, such as those near Niagara Falls and between Vancouver and Seattle, experienced declines of 42% and 48%, respectively. Air travel has also suffered, with a 13.5% decrease in Canadian return trips by air from the U.S. in March 2025, down to 719,500 from 832,000 the prior year. Advance bookings for Canada-U.S. flights from April to September 2025 have plummeted by as much as 70%, according to aviation analytics firm OAG. Overall, 4.1 million travelers crossed the U.S. northern border in March 2025, down from 5 million in 2024, with pedestrian crossings falling 26% and air travel through major pre-clearance airports dipping by 4%. The U.S. Travel Association estimates that even a 10% reduction in Canadian visitors could lead to $2.1 billion in lost spending and 14,000 job losses, but with declines exceeding 30% in some metrics, losses could surpass $6 billion in 2025, hitting tourism-dependent states like Florida, New York, and Maine hardest. Canadian travel agencies reinforce this trend, with Flight Centre reporting a 40% drop in U.S.-bound bookings in February 2025 and a 20% cancellation rate for prebooked trips. Other agencies, such as Travac Tours and Maple Leaf Tours, have canceled all U.S. tours through July or seen business drop by 70-80%.
Reasons Behind the Decline
Several factors explain this unprecedented decline. The imposition of 25% U.S. tariffs on Canadian goods in February 2025, announced by President Donald Trump, sparked a trade war that has strained bilateral relations. These tariffs, not covered by existing trade agreements, have raised costs for Canadian consumers and businesses, prompting retaliatory measures and widespread resentment. Former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s call to prioritize Canadian products and domestic travel resonated with many, framing U.S. travel as less patriotic. A Leger poll from March 2025 found that 36% of Canadians who had planned U.S. trips had canceled them, with 48% of travelers overall less likely to visit in 2025. The weak Canadian dollar against the U.S. dollar has further deterred travel, making accommodations, dining, and attractions in the U.S. significantly more expensive. This economic reality has pushed Canadians toward domestic destinations or places like Mexico and the Caribbean, where their money goes further.
Political tensions have also played a significant role. Trump’s provocative statements about annexing Canada as the “51st state” have offended many, fueling national pride and prompting cancellations like that of Bertha Lopez, who scrapped a trip to Arizona over the rhetoric. A Leger survey from February 2025 showed that older Canadians and higher-income households were particularly likely to avoid U.S. travel, with 52% and 57%, respectively, citing political tensions. Stricter U.S. border policies, including a February 2025 requirement for Canadians staying longer than 30 days to register with authorities, have heightened anxiety. High-profile detentions, such as Canadian actress Jasmine Mooney’s 11-day ordeal at the U.S.-Mexico border, and Canada’s April 2025 travel advisory warning of increased scrutiny have amplified fears. Travelers like Arash Abizadeh, a McGill University professor, canceled U.S. trips over concerns about arbitrary detentions, questioning why they would risk such treatment.
Social sentiments are another factor, with some Canadians boycotting the U.S. in solidarity with marginalized groups, citing Trump’s rhetoric on immigration and the LGBTQ+ community as misaligned with Canadian values. Amar Charles Marouf expressed unease about who is welcome in the U.S., while travel journalist Kate Dingwall highlighted safety concerns amid stricter border policies. This has driven Canadians to destinations perceived as more inclusive, such as Bermuda, Europe, and domestic locales like Tofino and St. John’s, which have seen search increases of 30% or more on Expedia.
Where Canadians Are Going Instead
Instead of the U.S., Canadians are embracing domestic and alternative international travel. Expedia reports that coastal destinations like Tofino, St. John’s, and Gaspésie are seeing significant increases in searches, alongside major cities like Toronto, Vancouver, and Montreal. Domestic flight bookings for summer 2025 are up 6%, according to the Airlines Reporting Corporation. Internationally, Bermuda anticipates a 20% rise in Canadian visitors, while European rental properties have seen a 32% jump in summer reservations. St. Pierre and Miquelon, a French territory near Newfoundland, recorded a 130% spike in Expedia searches.
Economic and Social Implications
The decline is already impacting the U.S. economy, with tourism-dependent regions like Florida, where Canadians are selling vacation properties, and New York’s North Country, where 66% of businesses report fewer bookings, feeling significant strain. Airlines such as Delta, United, and Air Canada have cut Canada-U.S. routes, with Air Canada reducing April 2025 capacity by 63,000 seats. Socially, the boycott reflects broader tensions in U.S.-Canada relations. While some U.S. officials attribute the decline to currency fluctuations, Canadian travel planners suggest a return to normalcy may depend on a post-Trump era. For now, the cross-border connection is fraying, with Canadians like Cheryl Stiefvater viewing staying home as an act of patriotism.
Conclusion
The sharp drop in Canadian travel to the U.S. in 2025, evidenced by a 31.9% decline in car trips, 13.5% in air travel, and up to 70% in future bookings, signals a profound shift. Driven by tariffs, a weak dollar, annexation rhetoric, border security fears, and solidarity with marginalized groups, Canadians are choosing domestic and alternative destinations. With potential U.S. economic losses exceeding $6 billion, this trend underscores the fragility of cross-border ties. As Canadians redirect their travel dollars, the U.S. tourism industry faces a reckoning, and the path to rebuilding trust remains uncertain.
